Industry Insights

Cocoa and Coffee Dominate 2024 Commodity Markets

Cocoa Beans

2024 marked a standout year for global commodities, with cocoa and coffee emerging as the best-performing agricultural products. These staples experienced substantial price increases driven by constrained supplies, surging demand, and evolving climate patterns affecting major cocoa and coffee production hubs.

Cocoa: A Sweet Surge

Unpredictable weather in West Africa, the primary cocoa-producing region, tightened supply and pushed prices to unprecedented levels. The confectionery industry’s consistent demand amplified the scarcity effect, resulting in historic price highs.

Coffee: A Stimulating Performance

Arabica coffee markets thrived in 2024, with both traditional and emerging markets fueling demand. Brazil, a major producer, faced weather-related supply constraints, which further bolstered prices. The rising preference for premium coffee blends contributed significantly to the commodity’s impressive growth.

Broader Commodity Trends and Nigeria’s Success Story

While the World Bank projected a 3% decline in overall commodity prices in 2024 and forecasted further drops through 2025-2026, specific sectors displayed volatility and opportunities for gains. In this landscape, Nigeria emerged as a notable success, recording ₦6.22 trillion in non-oil export revenues in the first nine months of 2024—a staggering 98% increase compared to ₦3.14 trillion in 2023.

Agricultural Exports Driving Growth

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that Nigeria’s agricultural exports surged to ₦2.9 trillion, a 271% increase from ₦780.5 billion during the same period in 2023. Key drivers included robust global demand and favorable conditions for non-oil exports, despite a 69% depreciation of the Naira.

Top Commodities of 2024: A Closer Look

  1. Cocoa – 121% Growth
    Nigeria’s leading agricultural export saw prices soar from $2.88/kg in 2023 to $6.37/kg in 2024. Futures on the London Stock Exchange peaked at £10,137 per tonne in April, with December prices reaching $11,839 per tonne. On Nigeria’s AFEX commodities exchange, cocoa hit ₦15,000/kg by year-end.
  2. Coffee Robusta – 67% Growth
    Despite modest production levels, Nigeria’s coffee exporters capitalized on global price hikes, with robusta coffee appreciating from $2.88/kg in 2023 to $3.84/kg in 2024.
  3. Rubber RSS3 – 43% Growth
    Prices for ribbed smoked sheets rubber rose from $1.38/kg in 2023 to $1.98/kg in 2024, benefiting Nigerian producers who play a key role in the global supply chain for vehicle tires, footwear, and adhesives.
  4. Oranges – 42% Growth
    A severe heat wave in Brazil, the worst since 1988, devastated orange harvests, leading to a price jump from $1.38/kg in 2023 to $1.96/kg in 2024. Nigeria, one of the top 10 global orange producers, seized the opportunity to expand its market share.
  5. Palm Kernel Oil – 41% Growth
    This key agricultural export rose from $868.09 per metric tonne in 2023 to $1,226.53 per metric tonne in 2024. Nigeria’s estimated production of 393,000 tonnes in 2023 significantly boosted export revenues.

Looking Ahead: Sustaining Growth Amid Challenges

Despite projected declines in global commodity prices, Nigeria’s agricultural sector demonstrates resilience and adaptability. Strategic investments in infrastructure, enhanced market access, and policies supporting non-oil exports will be essential to sustain this upward trajectory.

As global challenges such as climate change and geopolitical tensions persist, Nigeria’s focus on value addition and sustainability could solidify its position as a major player in the international commodity markets.